실리콘밸리의 비개발자 직장인

QALY 에 대한 위키피디아의 정의는 아래와 같다. The quality-adjusted life year or quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) is a measure of disease burden, including both the quality and the quantity of life lived. It is used in assessing the value for money of a medical intervention. According to Pliskin et al., The QALY model requires utility independent, risk neutral, and constant proportional tradeoff behaviour. The Q..

Critical Path Analysis ex) 1. ES (earliest start) - Earliest start time given predecessor activities 2. EF (earliest finish) - Earliest possible completion time 3. LS (latest start) - Latest start time as to not delay entire project 4. LF (latest finish) - Latest finish time as to not delay entire project 1) Forward Pass ​- Proceed through diagram from strat to finish 다이아그램의 시작부터 시간을 계산해 나감 - ES..

Bracket Median Method. Continuous distribution을 discrete approximation 하는 방법 2번째 (Tukey method에 이어) - The bracket median method of interval [a,b] is a value m* between a and b such that P(a

Expected Value of Perfect Information. : quantity as the maximum amount that the investor should be willing to pay the clairvoyant for perfect information. (출처: Figure. Making hard decision chapter12 pg.440) 그림을 보면, 정보가 없는 decision node에서 나오는 EMV는 high risk 일때 580이다. Consult Clairvoyant, 즉, perfect information 이 제공되는 경우, investor의 행동을 보면 market이 up 일때는 high rist stock을, market이 flat일때는 savings a..

certainty equivalent : 확실성등가란 위험있는 수익흐름에 대하여 그 위험을 부담하는 대신 보다 적은 수익이라도 확실하게 실현될 수 있다면 그와 맞바꿀 수 있는 최소한의 가격 (네이버 지식백과) : the amount of money that is equivalent in your mind to a given situation that involves uncertainty. (making hard decision 2nd edi) 예를 들어 이해해 보도록하자, win $2,000 with probability 0.50, lose $20 with probability 0.50 인 복권의 상황을 가정해보자. 만약 친구가 나 대신 위의 복권을 사려고 한다. 얼마에 저 기회를 양보하겠는가? $300..

The easiest way to use a continuous distribution in a decision tree or influence diagram is to approximate it with a discrete distribution. The basic idea is to find a few representative points in the distribution and then to assign those points specific probability value. A particularly simple approach, from Keefer and Bodily (1983), is called the extended Pearson-Turkey method. (Source: Making..